A very strong damaging earthquake has occurred in eastern Turkey – with the epicentre in Van'da province. To date 85 people are reported killed and at least 500 injured, but these are only intermediate figures.

The earthquake was magnitude 7.2, occuring on Sunday, October 23, 2011 at 10:41 GMT (13:41 local time), at the depth of 20km. The epicentre was 19 km north of Van (pop 371,713) and 26 km south-east of Ercis (pop 91,915)

Doctors from Ercis State Hospital reported that the number of the injured patients is close to 1000. Many patients are kept in the hospital's parking lot and the garden in tents.

This earthquake has been felt in all neighboring countries, including Iran, Georgia, Armenia, Syria and Iraq, and beyond, including Jordan and Lebanon. This is a really bad sign. The red colored area on the map below is at very high risk for casualties.

USGS is reporting a preliminary magnitude of 7.3 at a depth of 7.2 km. These are devastating values, with up to 15 million people living in the affected areas.

The 1976 earthquake on the Iranian-Turkish border was a M7 and killed around 5000 people. If we are looking at a direct hit on Van, the highest death percentage likely is around 6-10%, which could mean values of dead around the Izmit earthquake – between 19000-38000 dead. These figures are purely based on theoretical models, and estimates suggest Turkey should expect a death toll near 10,000.

Houses have been destroyed 5km from Van. Some houses in the city have been destroyed, many houses were damaged. Phones fell silent and power has been cut. Kandilli Observatory described the earthquake as devastating.

As could be expected, strong aftershocks will be making the damage even bigger. The epicentre area is currently getting many +5 aftershocks, already dangerous on their own. One of the aftershocks had a magnitude of 5.6 and will certainly cause more destruction.

An overview of some of the aftershocks : Van Ilikaynak – M5.4 – local time 13:48, Van Gedikbulak – 5.5 – 13:56, Van Gevas – 4.6 – 14:10, Van Halkali – 5.5 – 14:32

There have been over 100 damaging earthquakes through history within 100km of this epicentre. Here are some of the most damaging ones that have affected Van.

• 1111 - Van earthquake caused major damage, with a magnitude of around 6.5-7.
• 1646/1648 – Van was again struck by a M6.7 quake, killing around 2000 people.
• 30th May 1881 – M6.3, near Van, killed 95 people.
• In 1941, a M5.9 earthquake affected Ercis and Van, killing between 190 and 430 people.
• A swarm of smaller earthquakes from 1945-1946 killed many people in Van.
• The North Anatolian Fault caused additional damage in Van from a 4.9 quake in 1972 with 10 injured.
• In 1976, 66km away from this one, a M7 quake on the border killed 3840, 51000 became homeless.

A 7-storey building in Van collapsed as a result of the earthquake with some citizens trapped in the rubble. Search and Rescue teams have been working around the clock. Essentially the percentage of people killed in such collapses of major buildings ranges between 20%-50% of the occupants. This should be a further wake-up call after 1999 for Istanbul, when shoddy construction practices were blamed for most of the fatalities.

Buildings were destroyed in Van and Sanliurfa and all the settlements have reported some of the buildings collapsed in the earthquake and many buildings were damaged. A large number of injured people have been transferred to hospital.

There are reports of large number of dead in Ercis. The total population of the city is 145,229 and spread among the city centre and villages.

Ercis (town near Van) mayor has said that they expect a very large number of dead – a state of emergency is declared and he has appealed for help.

Prime Minister Erdokan of Turkey is on his way to Van and sends in as much support as needed in terms of hospital supplies, rescue staff etc.

Deputy Prime Minister Bashir Atalay: "According to information received from area around 10 buildings were destroyed in the center of Van. Another 25-30 buildings and a dormitory building were destroyed in Ercis. Additional damage may be found in the villages, especially some of the villages attached to the hub there may be more damage. The Prime Minister and Emergency Management and Red Crescent in the region noted Atalay Airlines plane with 160 people and a military aircraft to bring relief supplies to the region has been sent," he said.

The town of Bitlis has also reported some destroyed buildings (Bitlis is approx. 100 km from the epicentre). We expect the dead toll in the many villages in between to become very high too. The cold weather is also affecting people and the need for shelter as night falls becomes a major concern for residents. Many people will sleep in the streets scared to return to their homes.

Turkish Red Crescent sending 1162 tents, 1000 heaters, 4250 blankets, 500 supply kits.

A lot of people are leaving the cities and are heading for family in the rural areas. They fear the narrow streets with medium rise apartment buildings.

Germany has offered help Turkey. The German Green Party called on the international community to provide fast and "unbureaucratic" support for rescue workers.

The Armenian President has sent a message of condolence to the President of the Republic of Turkey Abdullah Gül regarding the earthquake. Armenia is located at a relatively short distance from the earthquake area and people in Armenia were very frightened by the shaking.

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